A 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast for Ugandan SMEs
Profit does not pay salaries; cash does. A simple 13-week forecast shows you where the cash will be tight before it happens.
Many profitable businesses run out of cash. Customers pay late, stock is bought in advance, taxes fall due and suddenly the account is empty. A 13-week cash flow forecast is the simplest tool we know for seeing this early. It covers one quarter, is updated every week and takes under an hour once set up.
Set up the sheet
Create a spreadsheet with weeks 1 to 13 across the top. Down the side, list cash coming in, cash going out and the opening and closing balance. The closing balance of one week becomes the opening balance of the next.
Cash in
List actual expected receipts, not sales invoiced. If a customer usually pays after 45 days, record the money in the week you realistically expect it. Include mobile money collections, bank transfers, cash sales and any loan drawdowns.
Cash out
Include supplier payments, salaries and NSSF contributions, rent, transport, utilities, loan repayments and tax obligations such as PAYE, VAT and withholding tax. Put each in the week it falls due. Add a line for owner drawings and a small contingency.
Read the result
Look for weeks where the closing balance goes below a minimum you are comfortable with. That is the signal to act: chase invoices, negotiate longer supplier terms, delay a purchase or arrange short-term funding before you need it, when lenders will treat you more favourably.
Keep it alive
- Update it every Monday with last week's actuals
- Roll the forecast forward so you always see 13 weeks ahead
- Note why actuals differ from forecast; patterns teach you a lot
- Share it with whoever approves payments
We build and install forecasting models for clients and train their finance staff to maintain them. See our financial advisory services.